The Public Housing Dividend

The study projected five public housing investment scenarios across the GTHA through 2050. The strongest pathway or test, combined new construction with a renewal of existing stock. By 2050, that scenario would grow the regions public housing inventory from roughly 80,000 units today to more than 102,000 units, housing nearly 240,000 residents. Under a reduced funding scenario, the system shrinks from just 66,000 units and houses to only 152,000 people. Thats a difference of more than 86,000 residents. But the housing numbers aren't the most interesting parts of the study.

The report estimates that a combined construction and renewal pathway would generate $49.6 billion in cumulative GDP and support more than 354,000 job-years by 2050. Reduced funding cuts those figures to $12 billion and 111,000 job-years respectively. In simpler terms, the difference between building and not building shouldn't just be measured in total units but in a cumulative economic output.

The report also found that the strongest housing pathway would result in roughly 524,000 fewer hospital days, 156,000 fewer emergency department visits, and 44,000 fewer justice-system interactions relative to the status quo. It would also reduce homelessness by approx 4,700 people by 2050

It’s a useful reminder for an industry that is understandably hyper fixated on debating approvals and financing. Housing can be much more than just a shelter. In its entirety, it can shape healthcare systems, labour markets, public spending and economic growth.

One finding succinctly captures the debate: When comparing public housing investment against broader economic spending, the study found that new construction performed roughly 70 percent better than simply directing capital into the wider economy. Its really a remarkable claim.

Housing can sometimes be mistaken as a consequence of economic growth. Build up the economy first, create jobs and worry about housing after.

These findings emphasize the opposite. Toronto can’t afford not to build.